Tennis · Premier Padel Bordeaux · 02/07, 12:00
Prediction: Tello/Arce vs Leal/Guerrero
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 52% to Leal/Guerrero; the market gives 54% to Leal/Guerrero (odds 1.73).
Over their last 10 matches, Tello/Arce sits at 6-4 (W-L), while Leal/Guerrero arrives on a 4-6 run.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tello/Arce 1530 · Leal/Guerrero 1545
| Tello/Arce | Leal/Guerrero | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Tello/Arce | Leal/Guerrero | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-13 | 12.8-9.9 |
| Aces | 0 | 0 |
| Double faults | 0 | 0 |
| 1st serve % | 54.7% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 26% | 44.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 50% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 50% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tello/Arce
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Belluati/Sager Premier Padel Bordeaux |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 12/06 | Galan/Chingotto Premier Padel Valencia |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Bergamini/Garrido Premier Padel Valencia |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 10/06 | Rodriguez/De Pascual Premier Padel Valencia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Sanz/Nieto Premier Padel Rome |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Sanz/Nieto Premier Padel Buenos Aires |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/05 | Cabeza/Gonzalez Premier Padel Buenos Aires |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 08/05 | Galan/Chingotto Premier Padel Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 07/05 | Lijo/Garcia Rodrigo Premier Padel Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/05 | Navarro/Guerrero Premier Padel Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Leal/Guerrero
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Aguirre/Valenzuela Premier Padel Bordeaux |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 27/06 | Galan/Chingotto Premier Padel Valladolid |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/06 | Stupaczuk/Yanguas Premier Padel Valladolid |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Rodriguez/De Pascual Premier Padel Valladolid |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 23/06 | Rubio/Ruiz Premier Padel Valladolid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Augsburger/Lebron Premier Padel Valencia |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Mourino/Quilez Premier Padel Valencia |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Ruiz/Ortega Premier Padel Valencia |
2-1 | 15-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Collado/Hernandez Premier Padel Rome |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 26/09 | Coello/Tapia Premier Padel Dusseldorf |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tello/Arce vs Leal/Guerrero?
Our model gives 53% to Leal/Guerrero, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.