Prediction: Newmarket vs AC Carina
Expected goals: 4.2 (Newmarket 2.35 · AC Carina 1.85). The model gives 49% home, 21% draw, 30% away. Over 3.75 goals (54%) and both teams to score (63%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Newmarket with 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; AC Carina has piled up 4-4-2 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Newmarket won 5 and AC Carina 1.
| Newmarket | Draw | AC Carina | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 21% | 30% |
| Market | 49% | 21% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1602 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Newmarket: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.9 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | AC Carina | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.6 / 1.6 | 2.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 3.4 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newmarket 5–0–1 AC Carina
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | AC Carina | 6-2 HT 0-1 | Newmarket |
| 30/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 5-4 HT 1-3 | AC Carina |
| 16/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 3-2 HT 2-1 | AC Carina |
| 24/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | AC Carina | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Newmarket |
| 06/06/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | AC Carina | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Newmarket |
| 07/03/21 Australia Brisbane Capital League 1 | Newmarket | 2-1 HT 1-0 | AC Carina |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 17 | 11 | 2 | 4 | 58 | 22 | 35 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 33 |
| 3 | Moggill | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 49 | 24 | 33 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 23 | 30 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 38 | 34 | 29 |
| 6 | North Lakes United | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 35 | 20 |
| 7 | North Brisbane FC | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 27 | 51 | 20 |
| 8 | Logan Roos FC | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 46 | 19 |
| 9 | University of Queensland | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 18 |
| 10 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 40 | 18 |
| 11 | Ipswich Knights | 18 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 28 | 43 | 18 |
| 12 | North Pine | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 16 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 26 | 64 | 10 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | AC Carina |
|---|---|---|
| Springfield United | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 6-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Moggill | 7-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Ipswich Knights | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
AC Carina
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-2 | 0-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 08/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 05/05 | Mudgeeraba Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 24/04 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 6-2 | 8 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newmarket win (49%). Probabilities: Newmarket 49%, draw 21%, AC Carina 30%.
How many goals are expected in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
The model expects 4.2 goals (Newmarket 2.35 · AC Carina 1.85), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Newmarket vs AC Carina?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.