Prediction: Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic
Expected goals: 2.3 (Tulsa 1.16 · Sacramento Republic 1.13). The model gives 36% home, 30% draw, 34% away. Under 2.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (51%). Most likely score: 1-1.
On recent form, Tulsa is 5-2-3 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Sacramento Republic 4-3-3 over its own. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Tulsa and 1 for Sacramento Republic, with 3 draws.
| Tulsa | Draw | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Tulsa: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tulsa | Sacramento Republic | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.7 / 0.4 | 5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tulsa 2–3–1 Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Tulsa |
| 08/06/25 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Tulsa |
| 29/03/25 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 23/06/24 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
| 14/04/24 USA USL Championship | Sacramento Republic | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Tulsa |
| 30/04/23 USA USL Championship | Tulsa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sacramento Republic |
Standings · USA USL Championship · USL Championship 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Orange County SC | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | San Antonio FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 17 | 24 |
| 3 | Oakland Roots | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 20 | 21 |
| 4 | Tulsa | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 19 |
| 5 | New Mexico United | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 18 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising FC | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 17 |
| 7 | El Paso Locomotive FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 16 |
| 8 | Sacramento Republic | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 12 | 16 |
| 9 | Colorado Switchbacks FC | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 16 |
| 10 | Las Vegas Lights FC | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 20 | 23 | 15 |
| 11 | Lexington SC | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| 12 | Monterey Bay FC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 14 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tulsa | Sacramento Republic |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado Switchbacks FC | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Monterey Bay FC | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| San Antonio FC | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tulsa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 18/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Charleston Battery USA USL Championship |
1-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | San Antonio FC USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 9 | L |
| 31/05 | Las Vegas Lights FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 23/05 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 17/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 04/05 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 30/04 | El Paso Locomotive FC USA USL Championship |
1-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 11 | W |
| 26/04 | One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
Sacramento Republic
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | New Mexico United USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA USL Championship |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 07/06 | Monterey Bay FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 31/05 | Phoenix Rising FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | San Antonio FC USA USL Championship |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 9 | L |
| 17/05 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Orange County SC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 3-2 | 14 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 22/04 | Brooklyn FC USA USL Championship |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 15/04 | Minnesota United USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tulsa win (36%). Probabilities: Tulsa 36%, draw 30%, Sacramento Republic 34%.
How many goals are expected in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?
The model expects 2.3 goals (Tulsa 1.16 · Sacramento Republic 1.13), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.