Football · Northern Ireland Premier League Women · 28/06, 16:00
Glentoran (W) vs Derry City (W)
86%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Glentoran (W) 1573 · Derry City (W) 1489
| Glentoran (W) | Draw | Derry City (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 94% | 5% | 1% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.5 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.5Glentoran (W) 3.25 · Derry City (W) 1.25
Over / Under 4.5Under 4.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Glentoran (W) (rating 1573 vs 1489).
- High estimate: 4.5 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Glentoran (W): 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 2.8 combined avg at HT (2 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 14.9 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Glentoran (W) | Derry City (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.2 / 1.1 | 2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 10 | 2.7 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Glentoran (W) 6–0–0 Derry City (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Glentoran (W) |
| 13/06/25 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Glentoran (W) | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Derry City (W) |
| 02/10/24 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 1-6 HT 1-1 | Glentoran (W) |
| 12/10/22 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Derry City (W) | 0-10 HT 0-4 | Glentoran (W) |
| 01/06/22 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Glentoran (W) | 7-0 HT 3-0 | Derry City (W) |
| 06/10/21 Northern Ireland Premier League Women | Glentoran (W) | 9-1 HT 7-0 | Derry City (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Glentoran (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 4-2 | 16 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Shelbourne (W) Women’s Friendly |
1-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 22/05 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 19 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Waterford FC (W) Women’s Friendly |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 1 | L |
| 01/05 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 22/04 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 01/04 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 16 | 1 | W |
| 12/10 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Derry City (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-1 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 29/05 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-1 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Lisburn (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 15/05 | Lisburn Rangers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-0 | 2-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
1-3 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Linfield (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-4 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/04 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/04 | Cliftonville (W) Northern Ireland League Cup Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 12/10 | Crusaders Strikers (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 01/10 | Larne FC (W) Northern Ireland Premier League Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |