Methodology

We are not tipsters. We build our own statistical model and show you how it reaches every number, so you can judge the quality of each prediction for yourself.

From real data to a probability

Every day we collect results, team and player statistics and the Bet365 odds for the next 7 days across football, basketball, handball and tennis. Our engine turns that history into a probability for each market, and then compares it with the price the market is offering. Three steps: real data → statistical model → comparison with the market.

Football: Poisson / Dixon-Coles with attack and defence

For football we estimate the goals each team is expected to score, combining that team's attacking strength with the opponent's defensive weakness. A Poisson model (with the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring games) turns those expected goals into the full grid of outcomes: 1X2 probabilities, over/under lines, both-teams-to-score and the most likely correct score. We do not use raw averages — every number is adjusted for the quality of the opponent faced.

Opponent-adjusted Elo

An Elo rating measures the level of each team or player and updates after every match. Ours is adjusted for the quality of the opponent: beating a strong side is worth more than beating a weak one. This rating anchors the base strength of the model in every sport.

Basketball and handball

Here we combine opponent-adjusted Elo with each team's pace and recent points for and against, to estimate the total points/goals of the game against the market line.

Tennis: Elo by surface

A player can be much stronger on one surface than another, so we keep separate Elo ratings for clay, hard, grass and carpet, adjusted for the opponent. From there we estimate the favourite and, when the sample is reliable, the total games of the match.

Comparison with the market

We anchor our probability to the real 1X2 from Bet365 and show, market by market, where we agree with the price and where we differ. The odds movement (open → close) is also shown, because how the market moves is one of the best judges of a prediction.

Honesty by default

The betting market is very efficient and no model wins every time. That is why we do not sell "sure" picks: we show our probability next to the market's, match by match — even when they agree and there is no edge — and we publish the model's real performance once the sample is statistically reliable. The data is ours to give you; the decision is always yours.

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— The BetsTalent team