Prediction: Nicolo Toffanin vs Lorenzo Bocchi
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 61% to Lorenzo Bocchi; the market gives 75% to Lorenzo Bocchi (odds 1.25).
Over their last 10 matches, Nicolo Toffanin sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Lorenzo Bocchi arrives on a 6-4 run.
69%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolo Toffanin 1469 · Lorenzo Bocchi 1548
| Nicolo Toffanin | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Bocchi (rating 1469 vs 1548).
- Lorenzo Bocchi is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nicolo Toffanin | Lorenzo Bocchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.5-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-11.7 | 11.8-8.6 |
| Aces | 1 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 56.9% | 64.6% |
| Break % | 51.8% | 59.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolo Toffanin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Facundo Yunis M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 24/06 | Vincent Dullinger M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Alessandro Spadola M25 Milano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Riccardo Di Vita M25 Milano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/06 | Duje Ajdukovic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 09/06 | Andrej Blagojevic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 02/06 | Niklas Schell M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 28/05 | Alexander Weis M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/05 | Lasse Zajc Gajsek M15 Kranjska Gora · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Karol Filar M15 Doboj · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
Lorenzo Bocchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Filiberto Fumagalli M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 23/06 | William Mirarchi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/06 | Alexander Weis Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/06 | Ruslan Tiukaev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniil Sarksian M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/06 | Attila Dominik Boros M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-14 | L |
| 04/06 | Alan Aiukhanov M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/06 | Hendrik Thada Grohbruegge M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 28/05 | Ruslan Tiukaev M15 Tsaghkadzor · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolo Toffanin vs Lorenzo Bocchi?
Our model gives 69% to Lorenzo Bocchi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.