Tennis · Challenger Quito · 03/07, 16:00
Prediction: Hernan Casanova vs Juan Sebastian Osorio
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Juan Sebastian Osorio; the market gives 73% to Hernan Casanova (odds 1.28).
On recent form, Hernan Casanova is 6-4 (wins-losses) over their last 10 matches and Juan Sebastian Osorio 4-6 over theirs.
59%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hernan Casanova 1539 · Juan Sebastian Osorio 1601
| Hernan Casanova | Juan Sebastian Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Sebastian Osorio (rating 1539 vs 1601).
- Juan Sebastian Osorio dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Juan Sebastian Osorio is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Hernan Casanova | Juan Sebastian Osorio | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 100% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.9-8.9 | 14.3-11 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 0.7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 41.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2
Over 20.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hernan Casanova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Mario Andre Galarraga Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 23/06 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 11/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 10/06 | Samuel Heredia Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/05 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/05 | Luis Guto Miguel Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Juan Sebastian Osorio
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Peter Bertran Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Alejandro Hayen Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Felipe Vazquez M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 09/06 | Gabriel Schenekenberg M15 Brasilia |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 03/05 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 02/05 | Mwendwa Mbithi M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/05 | Ryan Dickerson M15 Quito · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 30/04 | Frazier Rengifo M15 Quito · ~Clay |
1-0 | 12-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hernan Casanova vs Juan Sebastian Osorio?
Our model gives 59% to Hernan Casanova, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.