Tennis · W15 Mogyorod · 02/07, 10:30
Prediction: Chiara Fornasieri vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 59% to Chiara Fornasieri; the market gives 51% to Chiara Fornasieri (odds 2.10).
On recent form, Chiara Fornasieri is 6-0-4 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Rebecca Munk Mortensen 3-0-7 over its own.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chiara Fornasieri 1550 · Rebecca Munk Mortensen 1489
| Chiara Fornasieri | Rebecca Munk Mortensen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chiara Fornasieri (rating 1550 vs 1489).
- Chiara Fornasieri is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Rebecca Munk Mortensen makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Chiara Fornasieri | Rebecca Munk Mortensen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 0.8-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-6.9 | 9.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 58.9% | 50.7% |
| Break % | 48.4% | 44% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chiara Fornasieri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Ingrid Vojcinakova W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 28/06 | Giulia Safina Popa W15 Galati · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 27/06 | Sara Victoria Balan W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 25/06 | Eva Maria Ionescu W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 24/06 | Laura Brunkel W15 Galati · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/06 | Lourdes Ayala W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Meriem Ben Ezzedine Meriem W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Natalia Sousa Salazar W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Chahd Tourkhani W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/06 | Andre Lukosiute W15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Rebecca Munk Mortensen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Luca Kalman W15 Mogyorod · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Madison Sieg W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Emma Kamper W35 Ystad · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 10/06 | Didi Bredberg Canizares W15 Madrid |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 07/05 | Iva Marinkovic W15 Kalmar · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Grace Bernstein W15 Kalmar · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 28/04 | Tilwith Di Girolami W15 Oegstgeest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/04 | Petra Marcinko Billie Jean King Cup |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 09/04 | Noma Noha Akugue Billie Jean King Cup |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/04 | Angelina Voloshchuk Billie Jean King Cup |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chiara Fornasieri vs Rebecca Munk Mortensen?
Our model gives 51% to Chiara Fornasieri, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.