Football · Mongolia Premier League · 03/07, 10:00

Prediction: Central Stallions vs Deren FC

Expected goals: 3.57 (Central Stallions 1.49 · Deren FC 2.08). The model gives 27% home, 22% draw, 51% away. Under 3.75 goals (55%) and both teams to score (59%). Most likely score: 1-1.

Recent form leaves Central Stallions with 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses over 10 games; Deren FC has piled up 5-1-4 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Central Stallions won 3 and Deren FC 2, with 1 draw.

51%2
27% 22% 51%
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Central Stallions 1516 · Deren FC 1533
Central StallionsDrawDeren FC
Our model27%23%51%
Market27%22%51%
Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
Expected goals3.57Central Stallions 1.49 · Deren FC 2.08
Over / Under 3.75Under 3.75 · 55%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Central Stallions: 3-1-2.
  • High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Central StallionsDeren FC
Goals for / against (FT)2.1 / 1.52.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)1.3 / 0.51 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/10/40%30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)2 / 5.92.1 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)2.9 / 0.12.6 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Central Stallions 312 Deren FC

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DateHomeScoreAway
24/06/26
Mongolia Premier League
Deren FC2-0
HT 1-0
Central Stallions
14/06/26
Mongolia Premier League
Deren FC1-2
HT 0-1
Central Stallions
30/10/25
Mongolia Premier League
Central Stallions1-0
HT 1-0
Deren FC
02/07/25
Mongolia Premier League
Central Stallions1-3
HT 1-1
Deren FC
12/04/25
Mongolia Premier League
Deren FC1-1
HT 1-1
Central Stallions
05/05/24
Mongolia Premier League
Deren FC0-1
HT 0-0
Central Stallions

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentCentral StallionsDeren FC
FC Ulaanbaatar 3-2 W 0-2 L
Khangarid Klub 2-2 D 2-1 W
Hunters FC 1-3 L 1-1 D
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 1 L 1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Deren FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Central Stallions

DWDLWWLLDW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/06 FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolia Premier League
3-0 3-2 23 W
27/06 Khangarid Klub
Mongolia Premier League
2-0 2-2 54 D
24/06 Deren FC
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 0-2 50 L
21/06 FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolia Premier League
0-2 0-3 11 L
17/06 FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolia Premier League
0-0 1-0 74 W
14/06 Deren FC
Mongolia Premier League
1-0 2-1 23 W
24/05 Hunters FC
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 1-3 81 L
21/05 Khangarid Klub
Mongolia Premier League
1-0 1-1 47 D
16/05 Ulaangom City FC
Mongolia Premier League
6-0 10-0 101 W
09/05 Khovd Western
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 1-1 156 D

Deren FC

LDWLLWWWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
30/06 Khangarid Klub
Mongolia Premier League
1-1 2-1 94 W
27/06 FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 0-2 103 L
24/06 Central Stallions
Mongolia Premier League
1-0 2-0 20 W
21/06 Khangarid Klub
Mongolia Premier League
1-1 3-2 33 W
18/06 Khovd FC
Mongolia Premier League
0-0 6-0 62 W
14/06 Central Stallions
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 1-2 133 L
23/05 FC Ulaanbaatar
Mongolia Premier League
0-1 0-2 52 L
20/05 Khoromkhon Club
Mongolia Premier League
5-0 12-0 41 W
17/05 Hunters FC
Mongolia Premier League
1-0 1-1 66 D
09/05 Khangarid Klub
Mongolia Premier League
1-1 1-2 14 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Central Stallions vs Deren FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Deren FC win (51%). Probabilities: Central Stallions 27%, draw 22%, Deren FC 51%.

How many goals are expected in Central Stallions vs Deren FC?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Central Stallions 1.49 · Deren FC 2.08), with a 55% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Central Stallions vs Deren FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.