Football · China Super League · 04/07, 13:35
Beijing Guoan vs Shandong Taishan
Expected goals: 3.87 (Beijing Guoan 2.33 · Shandong Taishan 1.54). The model gives 54% home, 22% draw, 24% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 2-1.
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Beijing Guoan 1522 · Shandong Taishan 1558
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shandong Taishan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| Market | 54% | 23% | 23% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.87 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.87Beijing Guoan 2.33 · Shandong Taishan 1.54
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Beijing Guoan | Shandong Taishan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.7 | 2.5 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 7.8 | 1.6 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.2 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Beijing Guoan 2–2–2 Shandong Taishan
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 China Super League | Shandong Taishan | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 31/08/25 China Super League | Shandong Taishan | 6-0 HT 4-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 19/04/25 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 6-1 HT 2-1 | Shandong Taishan |
| 30/06/24 China Super League | Beijing Guoan | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Shandong Taishan |
| 09/03/24 China Super League | Shandong Taishan | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Beijing Guoan |
| 31/08/23 China FA Cup | Beijing Guoan | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Shandong Taishan |
Standings · China Super League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chengdu Rongcheng | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 15 | 40 |
| 2 | Chongqing Tonglianglong | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 16 | 27 |
| 3 | Dalian Young Boy | 16 | 7 | 1 | 8 | 22 | 29 | 22 |
| 4 | Shandong Taishan | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 30 | 26 | 21 |
| 5 | Yunnan Yukun | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 29 | 28 | 21 |
| 6 | Qingdao West Coast | 16 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 20 | 24 | 21 |
| 7 | Beijing Guoan | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 18 |
| 8 | Zhejiang | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 17 |
| 9 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 17 |
| 10 | Liaoning Ironman | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 21 | 28 | 17 |
| 11 | Shanghai Shenhua | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Shanghai Port | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Henan | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 20 | 15 |
| 14 | Qingdao Hainiu | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 27 | 13 |
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 31 | 8 |
| 16 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 19 | 22 | 5 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Beijing Guoan | Shandong Taishan |
|---|---|---|
| Wuhan Three Towns | 1-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Chongqing Tonglianglong | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Qingdao West Coast | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Qingdao Hainiu | 4-2 W | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Beijing Guoan (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Beijing Guoan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 19/06 | Guangdong GZ-Power China FA Cup |
1-0 | 2-1 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Henan China Super League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 15/05 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
3-0 | 4-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Shanghai Port China Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 06/05 | Dalian Young Boy China Super League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/05 | Yunnan Yukun China Super League |
1-1 | 3-3 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 25/04 | Tianjin Jinmen Tigers China Super League |
0-2 | 2-4 | 17 | 3 | L |
Shandong Taishan
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Liaoning Ironman China Super League |
2-0 | 5-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Guangxi Hengchen China FA Cup |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 30/05 | Chengdu Rongcheng China Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Wuhan Three Towns China Super League |
2-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 20/05 | Zhejiang China Super League |
1-0 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Chongqing Tonglianglong China Super League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Shenzhen Xinpengcheng China Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/05 | Shanghai Shenhua China Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 01/05 | Qingdao West Coast China Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 26/04 | Qingdao Hainiu China Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |