Prediction: Boroondara Eagles (W) vs South Melbourne (W)
Expected goals: 3.3 (Boroondara Eagles (W) 1.25 · South Melbourne (W) 2.05). The model gives 22% home, 23% draw, 55% away. Under 3.25 goals (51%) and both teams to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves Boroondara Eagles (W) with 5 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses over 10 games; South Melbourne (W) has piled up 6-3-1 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Boroondara Eagles (W) won 1 and South Melbourne (W) 4, with 1 draw.
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | Draw | South Melbourne (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 23% | 55% |
| Market | 22% | 22% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (W) (rating 1485 vs 1576).
- H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 4-1-1.
- High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | South Melbourne (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 1.8 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 3.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Boroondara Eagles (W) 1–1–4 South Melbourne (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/04/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
| 30/08/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 0-5 HT 0-1 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 01/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
| 20/07/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 04/05/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Boroondara Eagles (W) |
| 02/09/23 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | South Melbourne (W) |
Standings · Australia NPL Victoria Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Essendon Royals (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 49 | 19 | 38 |
| 2 | Bulleen Lions (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 47 | 17 | 38 |
| 3 | Box Hill (W) | 18 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 48 | 22 | 38 |
| 4 | South Melbourne (W) | 18 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 40 | 18 | 35 |
| 5 | Avondale FC (W) | 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 41 | 20 | 32 |
| 6 | Boroondara Eagles (W) | 17 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 31 |
| 7 | Alamein FC (W) | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 29 |
| 8 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 32 | 31 | 26 |
| 9 | Spring Hills FC (W) | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 28 | 23 |
| 10 | Heidelberg United (W) | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 36 | 22 |
| 11 | Keilor Park (W) | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 19 |
| 12 | Preston Lions (W) | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 21 | 33 | 16 |
| 13 | Melbourne City NPL (W) | 18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 18 | 72 | 7 |
| 14 | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 14 | 69 | 4 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Boroondara Eagles (W) | South Melbourne (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Heidelberg United (W) | 3-1 W | 2-1 W |
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 0-4 L | 1-4 L |
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | 3-0 W | 9-2 W |
| Keilor Park (W) | 5-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Avondale FC (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 5 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Boroondara Eagles (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 26/04 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 17/04 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
South Melbourne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
7-1 | 9-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 24/04 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an South Melbourne (W) win (55%). Probabilities: Boroondara Eagles (W) 22%, draw 23%, South Melbourne (W) 55%.
How many goals are expected in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?
The model expects 3.3 goals (Boroondara Eagles (W) 1.25 · South Melbourne (W) 2.05), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Boroondara Eagles (W) vs South Melbourne (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.