Prediction: Grange Thistle vs Mitchelton FC
Expected goals: 4.18 (Grange Thistle 2.55 · Mitchelton FC 1.63). The model gives 57% home, 19% draw, 24% away. Over 4 goals (52%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 2-1.
Recent form leaves Grange Thistle with 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses over 10 games; Mitchelton FC has piled up 4-0-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 2 wins for Grange Thistle and 4 for Mitchelton FC.
| Grange Thistle | Draw | Mitchelton FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 20% | 23% |
| Market | 57% | 19% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Grange Thistle (rating 1569 vs 1475).
- H2H favours Mitchelton FC: 4-0-2.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Grange Thistle | Mitchelton FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 2.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 6.1 | 2.8 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Grange Thistle 2–0–4 Mitchelton FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying | Mitchelton FC | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Grange Thistle |
| 28/03/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Mitchelton FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Grange Thistle |
| 09/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Grange Thistle | 4-3 HT 2-3 | Mitchelton FC |
| 17/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | Mitchelton FC | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Grange Thistle |
| 19/05/17 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Mitchelton FC | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Grange Thistle |
| 18/02/17 Australia Brisbane Premier League | Grange Thistle | 1-3 HT 1-0 | Mitchelton FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | Virginia United | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | Pine Hills | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 22 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 39 | 22 |
| 7 | Souths United | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | Mitchelton FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 17 |
| 10 | Southside Eagles | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 33 | 17 |
| 11 | Brisbane Knights | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 37 | 16 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Grange Thistle | Mitchelton FC |
|---|---|---|
| SWQ Thunder | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Taringa Rovers | 0-0 D | 5-2 W |
| Southside Eagles | 2-1 W | 4-5 L |
| Souths United | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Samford Rangers | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Caloundra | 2-2 D | 6-2 W |
| Pine Hills | 3-3 D | 2-4 L |
| Brisbane Knights | 4-2 W | 4-3 W |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 6 W 3 D 0 L | 4 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Grange Thistle (7 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Grange Thistle
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 20/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/06 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-3 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 29/04 | Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 4-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 18/04 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
Mitchelton FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 6-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 05/06 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | SWQ Thunder Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 4-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Brisbane Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 4-3 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 25/04 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Grange Thistle vs Mitchelton FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Grange Thistle win (57%). Probabilities: Grange Thistle 57%, draw 19%, Mitchelton FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in Grange Thistle vs Mitchelton FC?
The model expects 4.18 goals (Grange Thistle 2.55 · Mitchelton FC 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Grange Thistle vs Mitchelton FC?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.