Prediction: Brisbane Knights vs SWQ Thunder
Expected goals: 3.95 (Brisbane Knights 1.46 · SWQ Thunder 2.49). The model gives 21% home, 19% draw, 60% away. Under 4 goals (52%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-2.
Recent form leaves Brisbane Knights with 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses over 10 games; SWQ Thunder has piled up 6-1-3 in the same span. In their only recent head-to-head meeting the record reads 0 wins for Brisbane Knights and 1 for SWQ Thunder.
| Brisbane Knights | Draw | SWQ Thunder | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 20% | 59% |
| Market | 21% | 19% | 60% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SWQ Thunder (rating 1445 vs 1556).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brisbane Knights | SWQ Thunder | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.7 | 2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.3 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.6 | 3.8 / 7.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brisbane Knights 0–0–1 SWQ Thunder
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 | SWQ Thunder | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Brisbane Knights |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grange Thistle | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 19 | 31 |
| 2 | SWQ Thunder | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 31 | 16 | 29 |
| 3 | Moreton City Excelsior B | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 28 |
| 4 | Virginia United | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| 5 | Pine Hills | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 22 |
| 6 | Caloundra | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 36 | 39 | 22 |
| 7 | Souths United | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 25 | 29 | 22 |
| 8 | Taringa Rovers | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 30 | 19 |
| 9 | Mitchelton FC | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 31 | 34 | 17 |
| 10 | Southside Eagles | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 33 | 17 |
| 11 | Brisbane Knights | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 26 | 37 | 16 |
| 12 | Samford Rangers | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 16 | 41 | 10 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Brisbane Knights | SWQ Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Souths United | 3-1 W | 3-0 W |
| Caloundra | 6-2 W | 5-3 W |
| Southside Eagles | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Samford Rangers | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Pine Hills | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Moreton City Excelsior B | 0-8 L | 0-3 L |
| Mitchelton FC | 3-4 L | 2-0 W |
| Grange Thistle | 2-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Virginia United | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Taringa Rovers | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 7 L | 6 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: SWQ Thunder (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brisbane Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/06 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-1 | 6-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 20/06 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-5 | 0-8 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 3-4 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 17/04 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 14/04 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
SWQ Thunder
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Grange Thistle Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 21/06 | Virginia United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 07/06 | Taringa Rovers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Mitchelton FC Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Southside Eagles Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Souths United Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Samford Rangers Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
2-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Pine Hills Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Caloundra Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
3-2 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Moreton City Excelsior B Australia Queensland Premier League 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Brisbane Knights vs SWQ Thunder?
According to our model, the most likely result is an SWQ Thunder win (60%). Probabilities: Brisbane Knights 21%, draw 19%, SWQ Thunder 60%.
How many goals are expected in Brisbane Knights vs SWQ Thunder?
The model expects 3.95 goals (Brisbane Knights 1.46 · SWQ Thunder 2.49), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Brisbane Knights vs SWQ Thunder?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.