Football · Australia New South Wales League 2 · 03/07, 12:00
Nepean FC vs Mounties Wanderers
Expected goals: 4.15 (Nepean FC 1.15 · Mounties Wanderers 3.01). The model gives 11% home, 15% draw, 74% away. Under 4 goals (51%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 1-3.
74%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nepean FC 1462 · Mounties Wanderers 1591
| Nepean FC | Draw | Mounties Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| Market | 11% | 14% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.15 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.15Nepean FC 1.15 · Mounties Wanderers 3.01
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mounties Wanderers (rating 1462 vs 1591).
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nepean FC | Mounties Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2 | 3.2 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 1 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.9 | 2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nepean FC 1–3–1 Mounties Wanderers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 Australia New South Wales League 2 | Mounties Wanderers | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Nepean FC |
| 06/09/24 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Nepean FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mounties Wanderers |
| 31/08/24 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Mounties Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nepean FC |
| 09/09/23 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Mounties Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nepean FC |
| 01/09/23 Australia New South Wales League 1 | Nepean FC | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Mounties Wanderers |
Standings · Australia New South Wales League 2
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mounties Wanderers | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 64 | 19 | 47 |
| 2 | Parramatta Eagles | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 27 | 33 |
| 3 | Hawkesbury City SC | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 38 | 43 | 30 |
| 4 | Fraser Park | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 32 | 22 | 30 |
| 5 | Dunbar Rovers FC | 20 | 9 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 29 | 30 |
| 6 | Central Coast United FC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 30 | 29 |
| 7 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 29 |
| 8 | Western Rage | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 45 | 28 |
| 9 | Sydney University | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 28 | 27 |
| 10 | Nepean FC | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 33 | 41 | 27 |
| 11 | Gladesville Ryde Magic | 20 | 8 | 1 | 11 | 34 | 46 | 25 |
| 12 | South Coast Flame FC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 27 | 24 |
| 13 | Inner West Hawks | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 29 | 34 | 22 |
| 14 | Bankstown United FC | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 20 |
| 15 | Camden Tigers SC | 20 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 28 | 54 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nepean FC | Mounties Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Parramatta Eagles | 1-3 L | 6-0 W |
| Dunbar Rovers FC | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Inner West Hawks | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| South Coast Flame FC | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Western Rage | 2-1 W | 4-1 W |
| Central Coast United FC | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Hawkesbury City SC | 3-3 D | 4-0 W |
| Sydney University | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 5 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Mounties Wanderers (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nepean FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 20/06 | Gladesville Ryde Magic Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 12/06 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 06/06 | Bankstown United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/05 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 22/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 16/05 | Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 08/05 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 24/04 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Mounties Wanderers
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Dunbar Rovers FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 19/06 | Parramatta Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
4-0 | 6-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 12/06 | Fraser Park Australia New South Wales League 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/06 | Central Coast United FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Bonnyrigg White Eagles Australia New South Wales League 2 |
3-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Western Rage Australia New South Wales League 2 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | South Coast Flame FC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 08/05 | Hawkesbury City SC Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 01/05 | Inner West Hawks Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 10/04 | Sydney University Australia New South Wales League 2 |
0-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |