Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Sarasota Paradise
Expected goals: 2.66 (Richmond Kickers 1.3 · Sarasota Paradise 1.36). The model gives 35% home, 27% draw, 38% away. Over 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Richmond Kickers sits at 2-1-7 (W-D-L), while Sarasota Paradise arrives on a 4-0-6 run.
| Richmond Kickers | Draw | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 29% | 37% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarasota Paradise (rating 1427 vs 1481).
- Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Richmond Kickers | Sarasota Paradise | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.3 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.9 | 0.2 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.7 | 2.1 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0 |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 17 | 28 |
| 2 | One Knoxville SC | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 21 | 14 | 24 |
| 5 | Spokane Velocity FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 23 |
| 6 | AC Boise | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne FC | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 12 | 21 |
| 8 | Forward Madison FC | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 20 |
| 9 | FC Naples | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 17 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 22 | 17 |
| 11 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 16 |
| 13 | Corpus Christi FC | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 20 | 14 |
| 15 | Richmond Kickers | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 11 |
| 16 | Greenville Triumph SC | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 21 | 10 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Richmond Kickers | Sarasota Paradise |
|---|---|---|
| Corpus Christi FC | 0-1 L | 1-4 L |
| AC Boise | 1-2 L | 2-0 W |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 0-5 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Sarasota Paradise (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 02/05 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 10 | W |
Sarasota Paradise
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 07/06 | FC Naples USA USL Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 8 | W |
| 31/05 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 28/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/05 | Sporting JAX USA USL Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Sarasota Paradise?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Sarasota Paradise win (38%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 35%, draw 27%, Sarasota Paradise 38%.
How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Sarasota Paradise?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.3 · Sarasota Paradise 1.36), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Sarasota Paradise?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.