Football · Republic of Ireland First Division · 03/07, 20:45
Finn Harps vs Wexford FC
Expected goals: 2.61 (Finn Harps 0.95 · Wexford FC 1.66). The model gives 21% home, 26% draw, 53% away. Under 2.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (52%). Most likely score: 1-1.
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Finn Harps 1425 · Wexford FC 1485
| Finn Harps | Draw | Wexford FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 27% | 53% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.61Finn Harps 0.95 · Wexford FC 1.66
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wexford FC (rating 1425 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Wexford FC: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Finn Harps | Wexford FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.3 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.7 | 2.9 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.3 / 0.2 | 5.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Finn Harps 0–3–3 Wexford FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Wexford FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Finn Harps |
| 06/03/26 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wexford FC |
| 22/09/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 1-3 HT 0-0 | Wexford FC |
| 01/08/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Wexford FC | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Finn Harps |
| 13/06/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Finn Harps | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Wexford FC |
| 11/04/25 Republic of Ireland First Division | Wexford FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Finn Harps |
Standings · Republic of Ireland First Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 21 | 16 | 3 | 2 | 42 | 11 | 51 |
| 2 | UCD | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 35 | 19 | 36 |
| 3 | Bray Wanderers | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 30 | 31 |
| 4 | Cobh Ramblers | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 31 |
| 5 | Wexford FC | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 27 |
| 6 | Kerry FC | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 25 |
| 7 | Longford Town | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 8 | Athlone Town | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 26 | 24 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 21 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 37 | 19 |
| 10 | Treaty United FC | 21 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 33 | 17 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Finn Harps | Wexford FC |
|---|---|---|
| Athlone Town | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Cobh Ramblers | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| UCD | 0-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Cork City | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Longford Town | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Treaty United FC | 0-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Kerry FC | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Bray Wanderers | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 4 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Wexford FC (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Finn Harps
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 12 | D |
| 19/06 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 12/06 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-3 | 0-5 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 29/05 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-2 | 0-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 08/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 01/05 | Wexford FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/04 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
Wexford FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 19/06 | Athlone Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 12/06 | Cork City Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 29/05 | Bray Wanderers Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-4 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 22/05 | UCD Republic of Ireland First Division |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Kerry FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 08/05 | Longford Town Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 04/05 | Treaty United FC Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 01/05 | Finn Harps Republic of Ireland First Division |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 24/04 | Cobh Ramblers Republic of Ireland First Division |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 5 | W |