Prediction: Tauranga Whai vs Auckland Tuatara
Estimated 175.2 total points (Tauranga Whai 82.7 · Auckland Tuatara 92.6).
On recent form, Tauranga Whai is 4-0-6 (wins-draws-losses) over its last 10 matches and Auckland Tuatara 9-0-1 over its own. In the last 5 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for Tauranga Whai and 4 for Auckland Tuatara.
| Tauranga Whai | Auckland Tuatara | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Auckland Tuatara (rating 1478 vs 1597).
- Auckland Tuatara is a clear favourite (73% market).
- H2H favours Auckland Tuatara: 4-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
| Tauranga Whai | Auckland Tuatara | |
|---|---|---|
| Points F|A (Last 10) | 83.7 / 89.9 | 95.3 / 83.3 |
| Points F|A (Last 5) | 85.4 / 91.8 | 91.8 / 82 |
| Est. result | 83 | 93 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tauranga Whai 1–0–4 Auckland Tuatara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 96-71 | Tauranga Whai |
| 08/06/25 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 78-59 | Tauranga Whai |
| 25/03/25 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 78-76 | Auckland Tuatara |
| 16/06/24 New Zealand NBL | Auckland Tuatara | 100-77 | Tauranga Whai |
| 06/04/24 New Zealand NBL | Tauranga Whai | 72-92 | Auckland Tuatara |
Standings · New Zealand NBL
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southland Sharks | 17 | 14 | 3 | 1647 | 1516 | 28 |
| 2 | Auckland Tuatara | 15 | 13 | 2 | 1434 | 1261 | 26 |
| 3 | Canterbury Rams | 15 | 11 | 4 | 1468 | 1286 | 22 |
| 4 | Wellington Saints | 14 | 10 | 4 | 1387 | 1248 | 20 |
| 5 | Otago Nuggets | 15 | 7 | 8 | 1294 | 1311 | 14 |
| 6 | Tauranga Whai | 15 | 6 | 9 | 1278 | 1360 | 12 |
| 7 | Franklin Bulls | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1345 | 1441 | 10 |
| 8 | Manawatu Jets | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1381 | 1496 | 10 |
| 9 | Taranaki Airs | 15 | 5 | 10 | 1239 | 1357 | 10 |
| 10 | Nelson Giants | 15 | 4 | 11 | 1289 | 1364 | 8 |
| 11 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 15 | 3 | 12 | 1338 | 1460 | 6 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tauranga Whai | Auckland Tuatara |
|---|---|---|
| Franklin Bulls | 93-79 W | 107-72 W |
| Southland Sharks | 96-102 L | 94-111 L |
| Canterbury Rams | 69-101 L | 100-97 W |
| Taranaki Airs | 73-85 L | 90-69 W |
| Nelson Giants | 69-58 W | 88-82 W |
| Hawke’s Bay Hawks | 94-88 W | 85-74 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Auckland Tuatara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tauranga Whai
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
93-79 | W |
| 24/06 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
96-102 | L |
| 19/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
69-101 | L |
| 14/06 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
96-92 | W |
| 12/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
73-85 | L |
| 06/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
69-58 | W |
| 30/05 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
94-88 | W |
| 23/05 | Auckland Tuatara New Zealand NBL |
71-96 | L |
| 15/05 | Manawatu Jets New Zealand NBL |
97-99 | L |
| 09/05 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
79-99 | L |
Auckland Tuatara
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| Date | Opponent | FT | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
88-82 | W |
| 20/06 | Hawke’s Bay Hawks New Zealand NBL |
85-74 | W |
| 14/06 | Wellington Saints New Zealand NBL |
96-88 | W |
| 06/06 | Taranaki Airs New Zealand NBL |
90-69 | W |
| 03/06 | Canterbury Rams New Zealand NBL |
100-97 | W |
| 31/05 | Franklin Bulls New Zealand NBL |
107-72 | W |
| 23/05 | Tauranga Whai New Zealand NBL |
96-71 | W |
| 16/05 | Otago Nuggets New Zealand NBL |
98-72 | W |
| 14/05 | Southland Sharks New Zealand NBL |
94-111 | L |
| 10/05 | Nelson Giants New Zealand NBL |
99-97 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tauranga Whai vs Auckland Tuatara?
Our model gives 73% to Auckland Tuatara.
How many points are expected in Tauranga Whai vs Auckland Tuatara?
The model estimates 175.2 total points (Tauranga Whai 82.7 · Auckland Tuatara 92.6).