Tennis · Challenger Milan · 01/07, 10:00
Gustavo Heide vs Alex Barrena
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 71% to Gustavo Heide; the market gives 75% to Gustavo Heide (odds 1.20).
75%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gustavo Heide 1602 · Alex Barrena 1448
| Gustavo Heide | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gustavo Heide (rating 1602 vs 1448).
- Gustavo Heide dominates on serve: 10.1 aces and 51.5% break avg.
- Gustavo Heide is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Gustavo Heide makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Gustavo Heide | Alex Barrena | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 88% (8) | 33% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.5 | 11.3-13.6 |
| Aces | 10.1 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.1% | 62.1% |
| Break % | 51.5% | 33.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gustavo Heide
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Federico Agustin Gomez Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Chun Hsin Tseng Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/06 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/06 | Jan Choinski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Jurij Rodionov French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Dan Added French Open · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Alex Barrena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Lukas Pokorny Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 18/05 | Alexis Galarneau French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 05/05 | August Holmgren Challenger Francavilla · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Mika Brunold Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 20/04 | Gianluca Cadenasso Challenger Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 26/03 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 25/03 | Igor Marcondes Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |