Tennis · Wimbledon Women · 01/07, 12:00
Anastasia Gasanova vs Naomi Osaka
Our model (Elo on grass, opponent-adjusted) gives 57% to Naomi Osaka; the market gives 75% to Naomi Osaka (odds 1.06).
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Anastasia Gasanova 1550 · Naomi Osaka 1601
| Anastasia Gasanova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 10% | 90% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Naomi Osaka (rating 1550 vs 1601).
- Note: Anastasia Gasanova makes many double faults (5.9/match).
Statistics
| Anastasia Gasanova | Naomi Osaka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 80% |
| Win % · Grass | 100% (4) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.6-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-10.5 | 11.7-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 5.9 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.8% | 74% |
| Break % | 53.5% | 50% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9 · Bet365 line 17.5 · +5.4
Over 17.5: 83% · 1.90
Under 17.5: 17% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Anastasia Gasanova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Emiliana Arango Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/06 | Darja Semenistaja Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Emerson Jones Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Varvara Lepchenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 28/05 | Martha Matoula W75 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Greet Minnen French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 06/05 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Istanbul · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Hanyu Guo WTA Istanbul · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/04 | Julia Grabher W100 Wiesbaden |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 28/04 | Miriam Bulgaru W100 Wiesbaden |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Naomi Osaka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Elsa Jacquemot Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 26/06 | Xinyu Wang WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/06 | Elise Mertens WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Magdalena Frech WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/06 | Aryna Sabalenka French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/05 | Iva Jovic French Open Women · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 28/05 | Donna Vekic French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/05 | Laura Siegemund French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/05 | Iga Swiatek WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |