Tennis · Wimbledon · 01/07, 12:00
Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 55% to Rafael Jodar; the market gives 65% to Rafael Jodar (odds 1.30).
65%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rafael Jodar 1576 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1544
| Rafael Jodar | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value indicator marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Rafael Jodar 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1).
Statistics
| Rafael Jodar | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.1 | 1.6-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.1-13.7 | 13.4-13.9 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 64.9% |
| Break % | 44.3% | 40.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27 · Bet365 line 39.5 · -12.5
Over 39.5: 1% · 1.90
Under 39.5: 99% · 1.80
H2H · Rafael Jodar 1 – 0 Pablo Carreno Busta (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rafael Jodar 1–0 Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 French Open | 3-2 | 26-17 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rafael Jodar
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Felix Gill Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 26-17 | W |
| 29/05 | Alex Michelsen French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-25 | W |
| 27/05 | James Duckworth French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-17 | W |
| 25/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Luciano Darderi ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Learner Tien ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/05 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/05 | Nuno Borges ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Martin Damm ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/04 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/03 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz Challenger Alicante · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |