🎾 Tennis · M15 Bergamo · 26/06, 10:00
Matthew William Donald vs Fausto Tabacco
56%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew William Donald 1500 · Fausto Tabacco 1603
| Matthew William Donald | Fausto Tabacco | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market. The 💎 marks where our model sees the odds underpriced (possible value).
🧠 Model analysis
💎 ValueFausto Tabacco · +6.5%The model gives this bet 6.5% more probability than its odds (1.83) pay: the bookie has it underpriced.
🔑 Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fausto Tabacco (rating 1500 vs 1603).
- Fausto Tabacco is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Matthew William Donald 1–0 Fausto Tabacco (1).
- Note: Matthew William Donald makes many double faults (4.9/match).
- Note: Fausto Tabacco makes many double faults (4.6/match).
🎾 Statistics
| Matthew William Donald | Fausto Tabacco | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.8-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-10.4 | 12.6-9.1 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 2 |
| Double faults | 4.9 | 4.6 |
| 1st serve % | 61.9% | 66.8% |
| Break % | 48% | 44.8% |
H2H · Matthew William Donald 1 – 0 Fausto Tabacco (1)
⚔️ Head-to-head (H2H) · Matthew William Donald 1–0 Fausto Tabacco
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/25 M15 Bergamo | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
📅 Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew William Donald
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Manuel Plunger M15 Bergamo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Daniele Rapagnetta M15 Bergamo |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Francesco Forti Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Sebastian Sorger M25 Grado |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Manuel Plunger M25 Grado |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/05 | Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M25 Grado |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/05 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 29/04 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 28/04 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Mauthausen · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Fausto Tabacco
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Federico Iannaccone M15 Bergamo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Leonardo Malgaroli M15 Bergamo |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Georgii Kravchenko M25 Milano |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/06 | Gianmarco Ferrari M25 Milano |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/06 | Petr Nesterov M25 Milano |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Luca Potenza M25 Milano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Milano |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 13/06 | Gabriele Piraino M15 Messina |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Maxence Rivet M15 Messina |
2-1 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Christian Sigsgaard M15 Messina |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |