Football · Mongolia Premier League · 01/07, 10:00
Khovd Western vs Ulaangom City FC
Expected goals: 4.29 (Khovd Western 3.14 · Ulaangom City FC 1.14). The model gives 80% home, 12% draw, 8% away. Over 4 goals (52%) and both teams to score (58%). Most likely score: 3-1.
80%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Khovd Western 1499 · Ulaangom City FC 1431
| Khovd Western | Draw | Ulaangom City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 83% | 11% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.29 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.29Khovd Western 3.14 · Ulaangom City FC 1.14
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 52%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Khovd Western (rating 1499 vs 1431).
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Khovd Western | Ulaangom City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 4.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.5 | 5 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.4 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Khovd Western 1–1–0 Ulaangom City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Ulaangom City FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Khovd Western |
| 29/10/25 Mongolia Premier League | Khovd Western | 6-0 HT 1-0 | Ulaangom City FC |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Khovd Western | Ulaangom City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Hunters FC | 0-2 L | 2-8 L |
| Khovd FC | 3-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Khangarid Klub | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Khoromkhon Club | 3-1 W | 4-2 W |
| Central Stallions | 1-1 D | 0-10 L |
| FC Ulaanbaatar | 0-3 L | 1-7 L |
| Deren FC | 1-5 L | 1-7 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Khovd Western (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Khovd Western
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 22/06 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 13/06 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 10 | D |
| 23/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 06/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
Ulaangom City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-3 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 25/06 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
1-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 17/06 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
2-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 10 | D |
| 21/05 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-6 | 0-10 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
1-6 | 1-7 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-3 | 1-7 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-6 | 2-8 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-2 | 1-5 | 0 | 2 | L |