Football · Mongolia Premier League · 30/06, 10:00
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Central Stallions
Expected goals: 3.45 (FC Ulaanbaatar 2.4 · Central Stallions 1.05). The model gives 67% home, 19% draw, 15% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (56%). Most likely score: 2-1.
67%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Ulaanbaatar 1627 · Central Stallions 1506
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Draw | Central Stallions | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 18% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.45FC Ulaanbaatar 2.4 · Central Stallions 1.05
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Ulaanbaatar (rating 1627 vs 1506).
- H2H favours FC Ulaanbaatar: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Ulaanbaatar | Central Stallions | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.4 / 0.5 | 2.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/20/0% | 50/10/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 6.4 | 2.6 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.2 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Ulaanbaatar 3–1–2 Central Stallions
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Central Stallions | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 17/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Central Stallions | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 02/11/25 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Central Stallions |
| 09/07/25 Mongolia Premier League | Central Stallions | 0-3 HT 0-2 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
| 19/04/25 Mongolia Premier League | FC Ulaanbaatar | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Central Stallions |
| 04/10/24 Mongolia Premier League | Central Stallions | 1-11 HT 0-5 | FC Ulaanbaatar |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Ulaanbaatar | Central Stallions |
|---|---|---|
| Deren FC | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Khangarid Klub | 3-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Hunters FC | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Ulaangom City FC | 7-1 W | 10-0 W |
| Khovd Western | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Ulaanbaatar (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Ulaanbaatar
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 21/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 17/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
6-0 | 7-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
6-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 06/05 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
Central Stallions
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 21/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 17/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 21/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
6-0 | 10-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 15 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 3 | W |