Football · Mongolia Premier League · 30/06, 13:00
Deren FC vs Khangarid Klub
Expected goals: 3.73 (Deren FC 2.19 · Khangarid Klub 1.55). The model gives 51% home, 22% draw, 26% away. Over 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-1.
51%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deren FC 1520 · Khangarid Klub 1545
| Deren FC | Draw | Khangarid Klub | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 22% | 26% |
| Market | 52% | 22% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.73 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.73Deren FC 2.19 · Khangarid Klub 1.55
Over / Under 3.5Over 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 60%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Khangarid Klub: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deren FC | Khangarid Klub | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.3 / 1.2 | 2.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 6.1 | 2.6 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 4.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deren FC 1–2–3 Khangarid Klub
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06/26 Mongolia Premier League | Khangarid Klub | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Deren FC |
| 09/05/26 Mongolia Premier League | Khangarid Klub | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Deren FC |
| 11/10/25 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Khangarid Klub |
| 10/07/25 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Khangarid Klub |
| 20/04/25 Mongolia Premier League | Khangarid Klub | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deren FC |
| 05/10/24 Mongolia Premier League | Deren FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Khangarid Klub |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deren FC | Khangarid Klub |
|---|---|---|
| FC Ulaanbaatar | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Central Stallions | 2-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Khovd FC | 6-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Khoromkhon Club | 12-0 W | 6-2 W |
| Hunters FC | 1-1 D | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Deren FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deren FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 24/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 21/06 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/06 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 20/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
5-0 | 12-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 09/05 | Khangarid Klub Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/05 | Ulaangom City FC Mongolia Premier League |
3-1 | 7-1 | 11 | 0 | W |
Khangarid Klub
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 24/06 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 21/06 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 18/06 | Khovd Western Mongolia Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Khovd FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Central Stallions Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Ulaanbaatar Mongolia Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Deren FC Mongolia Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 07/05 | Hunters FC Mongolia Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Khoromkhon Club Mongolia Premier League |
5-0 | 6-2 | 10 | 1 | W |