Football · Australia Victoria Cup Women · 30/06, 12:00
Bentleigh Greens (W) vs South Melbourne (W)
Expected goals: 3.55 (Bentleigh Greens (W) 0.87 · South Melbourne (W) 2.68). The model gives 9% home, 16% draw, 75% away. Under 3.5 goals (51%) and both teams to score (54%). Most likely score: 0-2.
75%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bentleigh Greens (W) 1402 · South Melbourne (W) 1567
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | Draw | South Melbourne (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 9% | 16% | 75% |
| Market | 9% | 16% | 75% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.55 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.55Bentleigh Greens (W) 0.87 · South Melbourne (W) 2.68
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours South Melbourne (W) (rating 1402 vs 1567).
- H2H favours South Melbourne (W): 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | South Melbourne (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 3.1 | 2.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 1.5 | 1.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.2 | 3.6 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bentleigh Greens (W) 0–1–5 South Melbourne (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bentleigh Greens (W) |
| 13/02/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-5 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 15/06/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Bentleigh Greens (W) |
| 14/03/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 08/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-4 HT 1-0 | South Melbourne (W) |
| 16/03/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | South Melbourne (W) | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Bentleigh Greens (W) |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bentleigh Greens (W) | South Melbourne (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Box Hill (W) | 1-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Heidelberg United (W) | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Preston Lions (W) | 3-5 L | 3-0 W |
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Essendon Royals (W) | 0-7 L | 1-4 L |
| Melbourne City NPL (W) | 1-5 L | 9-2 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 6 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: South Melbourne (W) (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bentleigh Greens (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 19/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/06 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 23/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 15/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 3-5 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 0-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 24/04 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
South Melbourne (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 20/06 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 06/06 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 0 | W |
| 16/05 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/05 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
7-1 | 9-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 24/04 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |