Football · Australia Victoria Cup Women · 30/06, 12:00
Alamein FC (W) vs Essendon Royals (W)
Expected goals: 2.78 (Alamein FC (W) 0.92 · Essendon Royals (W) 1.87). The model gives 17% home, 23% draw, 59% away. Under 3 goals (55%) and both teams to score (53%). Most likely score: 1-1.
59%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alamein FC (W) 1505 · Essendon Royals (W) 1585
| Alamein FC (W) | Draw | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 17% | 24% | 59% |
| Market | 18% | 22% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.78Alamein FC (W) 0.92 · Essendon Royals (W) 1.87
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 55%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Essendon Royals (W) (rating 1505 vs 1585).
- H2H favours Alamein FC (W): 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alamein FC (W) | Essendon Royals (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 3.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 3 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alamein FC (W) 3–1–2 Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Alamein FC (W) |
| 07/03/26 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Alamein FC (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Essendon Royals (W) |
| 19/07/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Alamein FC (W) | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Essendon Royals (W) |
| 26/04/25 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 2-4 HT 1-0 | Alamein FC (W) |
| 24/08/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Essendon Royals (W) | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Alamein FC (W) |
| 01/06/24 Australia NPL Victoria Women | Alamein FC (W) | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Essendon Royals (W) |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alamein FC (W) | Essendon Royals (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bentleigh Greens (W) | 1-1 D | 7-0 W |
| Bulleen Lions (W) | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Melbourne Victory NPL (W) | 2-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Spring Hills FC (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Boroondara Eagles (W) | 1-2 L | 4-0 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 4 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Essendon Royals (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alamein FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Essendon Royals (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/06 | Melbourne City NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 30/05 | Keilor Park (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | Avondale FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 13/05 | Bundoora Utd (W) Australia Victoria Cup Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 02/05 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/04 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
Essendon Royals (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Bulleen Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Alamein FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | Spring Hills FC (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Boroondara Eagles (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Box Hill (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | South Melbourne (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Heidelberg United (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Preston Lions (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 24/04 | Bentleigh Greens (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
4-0 | 7-0 | 12 | 1 | W |
| 19/04 | Melbourne Victory NPL (W) Australia NPL Victoria Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 1 | W |