Football · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · 04/07, 20:00
Centro Espanol vs Club Mercedes
Expected goals: 1.67 (Centro Espanol 1.16 · Club Mercedes 0.51). The model gives 52% home, 32% draw, 16% away. Over 1.5 goals (53%) and not both to score (57%). Most likely score: 1-0.
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Centro Espanol 1546 · Club Mercedes 1501
| Centro Espanol | Draw | Club Mercedes | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 34% | 15% |
| Market | 53% | 30% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.67 goals · Bet365 line 1.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.67Centro Espanol 1.16 · Club Mercedes 0.51
Over / Under 1.5Over 1.5 · 53%
BTTSNo · 57%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 83%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Centro Espanol (rating 1546 vs 1501).
- H2H favours Club Mercedes: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Centro Espanol | Club Mercedes | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 3.3 | 1.3 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.3 | 5.4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Centro Espanol 2–1–3 Club Mercedes
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Centro Espanol |
| 29/11/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Centro Espanol |
| 01/07/24 Argentina Primera C Metropolitana | Centro Espanol | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Club Mercedes |
| 13/11/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Club Mercedes | 0-2 | Centro Espanol |
| 31/07/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Centro Espanol | 1-4 HT 0-1 | Club Mercedes |
| 18/03/23 Argentina Primera D Metropolitana | Centro Espanol | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Club Mercedes |
Standings · Argentina Primera C Metropolitana · Primera C 2026, Group A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Centro Espanol | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 29 |
| 2 | Berazategui | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 28 |
| 3 | Sacachispas | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 28 |
| 4 | Victoriano Arenas | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 9 | 25 |
| 5 | CA Lugano | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Club Mercedes | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 10 | 22 |
| 7 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 22 |
| 8 | Club Leandro N. Alem | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 | 22 |
| 9 | Juventud Unida San Miguel | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 21 |
| 10 | Defensores de Cambaceres | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | 20 |
| 11 | Puerto Nuevo | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 17 | 20 |
| 12 | Argentino de Rosario | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 22 | 15 |
| 13 | Deportivo Paraguayo | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 24 | 15 |
| 14 | JJ Urquiza | 17 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 18 | 14 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Centro Espanol | Club Mercedes |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Paraguayo | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Puerto Nuevo | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Club Leandro N. Alem | 3-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Defensores de Cambaceres | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Juventud Unida San Miguel | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Sacachispas | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 1 L | 1 W 4 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Centro Espanol (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Centro Espanol
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 14/06 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 06/06 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
2-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/05 | Fenix Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 04/05 | Argentino de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | Estrella del Sur Alejandro Korn Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 18/04 | Central Cordoba de Rosario Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Club Mercedes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | JJ Urquiza Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
4-0 | 5-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | CA Lugano Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 06/06 | Deportivo Paraguayo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 30/05 | Puerto Nuevo Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 23/05 | Club Leandro N. Alem Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 18/05 | Deportivo Espanol Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Defensores de Cambaceres Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Juventud Unida San Miguel Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 26/04 | Sacachispas Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | CA Claypole Argentina Primera C Metropolitana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 5 | D |