Football · Lithuania A Lyga Women · 29/06, 16:00
MFA Zalgiris (W) vs FK Banga (W)
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MFA Zalgiris (W) 1578 · FK Banga (W) 1463
| MFA Zalgiris (W) | Draw | FK Banga (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.6 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.6MFA Zalgiris (W) 2.8 · FK Banga (W) 0.8
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 58%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MFA Zalgiris (W) (rating 1578 vs 1463).
- High estimate: 3.6 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours MFA Zalgiris (W): 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MFA Zalgiris (W) | FK Banga (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/60/0% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.9 / 3.8 | 1 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 2.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MFA Zalgiris (W) 6–0–0 FK Banga (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women | FK Banga (W) | 0-4 HT 0-3 | MFA Zalgiris (W) |
| 22/06/25 Lithuania A Lyga Women | MFA Zalgiris (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Banga (W) |
| 29/09/24 Lithuania A Lyga Women | MFA Zalgiris (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FK Banga (W) |
| 05/06/24 Lithuania A Lyga Women | MFA Zalgiris (W) | 3-0 HT 1-0 | FK Banga (W) |
| 04/05/24 Lithuania A Lyga Women | FK Banga (W) | 0-5 HT 0-2 | MFA Zalgiris (W) |
| 17/09/23 Lithuania A Lyga Women | MFA Zalgiris (W) | 3-0 HT 2-0 | FK Banga (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MFA Zalgiris (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 14/06 | FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Gintra Universitetas (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 16/05 | Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | FA Siauliai (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | Gintra Universitetas (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 14/03 | Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
4-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 02/11 | FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/10 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
FK Banga (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05 | Kauno Rajono FA (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 16/05 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 02/05 | FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 15/03 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/10 | FK Transinvest (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 21/09 | MFA Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 31/08 | FK Kauno Zalgiris (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | FK Zalgiris Vilnius (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 24/08 | FC Hegelmann (W) Lithuania A Lyga Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |