Football · Brazil Paulista Serie B · 28/06, 20:00
Paulinia Universitario U23 vs Itaquaquecetuba U23
53%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Paulinia Universitario U23 1464 · Itaquaquecetuba U23 1582
| Paulinia Universitario U23 | Draw | Itaquaquecetuba U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 28% | 52% |
| Market | 22% | 24% | 54% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.47Paulinia Universitario U23 0.9 · Itaquaquecetuba U23 1.57
Over / Under 2.5Under 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Itaquaquecetuba U23 (rating 1464 vs 1582).
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.4 + 1.3) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Paulinia Universitario U23 | Itaquaquecetuba U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2.1 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3.7 | 4.7 / 6.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 5.9 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Paulinia Universitario U23
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Votoraty U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/06 | Flamengo SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 05/06 | Guarulhos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | GO Audax U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | SC Paulinense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 15/05 | Votoraty U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 0-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Flamengo SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 10 | D |
| 03/05 | Guarulhos U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/04 | GO Audax U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | SC Paulinense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Itaquaquecetuba U23
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Uniao Mogi U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Maua U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
4-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 06/06 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 2-0 | 15 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 8 | W |
| 23/05 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 12 | W |
| 17/05 | Uniao Mogi U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Maua U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 19/04 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |