Football · Paraguay Tercera Division · 28/06, 20:00
29 de Septiembre FBC vs 12 de Octubre
49%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · 29 de Septiembre FBC 1469 · 12 de Octubre 1589
| 29 de Septiembre FBC | Draw | 12 de Octubre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market | 22% | 29% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.6329 de Septiembre FBC 1.03 · 12 de Octubre 1.6
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours 12 de Octubre (rating 1469 vs 1589).
- H2H favours 12 de Octubre: 2-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.2 + 1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg → Over corners.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| 29 de Septiembre FBC | 12 de Octubre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.7 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.5 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.9 | 2.6 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6.5 / 1.4 | 5.7 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · 29 de Septiembre FBC 0–0–2 12 de Octubre
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/25 Paraguay Tercera Division | 29 de Septiembre FBC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | 12 de Octubre |
| 02/07/25 Paraguay Tercera Division | 12 de Octubre | 7-0 HT 4-0 | 29 de Septiembre FBC |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
29 de Septiembre FBC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | Atlantida SC Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 01/06 | Club Olimpia de Ita Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 2-2 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 24/05 | Club General Martin Ledesma Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
| 20/05 | Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 03/05 | River Plate Asuncion Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
| 29/04 | Cristobal Colon JAS Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Presidente Hayes Paraguay Tercera Division |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | 3 de Febrero FBC Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 12/04 | Club 1 de Marzo Pilar Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 10 | D |
| 15/11 | 3 de Noviembre Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
12 de Octubre
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06 | 24 de Setiembre Paraguay Tercera Division |
2-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 02/06 | Atlantida SC Paraguay Cup |
1-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 30/05 | Atlantida SC Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 25/05 | Club Olimpia de Ita Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 21/05 | Club General Martin Ledesma Paraguay Division Intermedia |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 15/05 | Sportivo Iteno Paraguay Tercera Division |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Silvio Pettirossi Paraguay Tercera Division |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 29/04 | River Plate Asuncion Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 24/04 | Cristobal Colon JAS Paraguay Tercera Division |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | Presidente Hayes Paraguay Tercera Division |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |