Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 27/06, 22:30
Carneras UPS (W) vs CD Espuce (W)
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carneras UPS (W) 1476 · CD Espuce (W) 1404
| Carneras UPS (W) | Draw | CD Espuce (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 26% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.88Carneras UPS (W) 1.68 · CD Espuce (W) 1.21
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carneras UPS (W) (rating 1476 vs 1404).
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carneras UPS (W) | CD Espuce (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.8 | 0.9 / 2.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/25/50% | 14/43/43% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.8 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.5 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carneras UPS (W) 1–0–1 CD Espuce (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Carneras UPS (W) |
| 27/05/23 Ecuador Primera Women | CD Espuce (W) | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Carneras UPS (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carneras UPS (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/06 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/06 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 26/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/04 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 05/04 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
CD Espuce (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 27/05 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 22/05 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 08/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 30/04 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |