Football · Ecuador Primera Women · 28/06, 19:00
Deportivo Ibarra (W) vs EL Nacional (W)
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 1530 · EL Nacional (W) 1402
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | Draw | EL Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| Market | 90% | 6% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Deportivo Ibarra (W) 3.14 · EL Nacional (W) 1.14
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 53%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Deportivo Ibarra (W) usually leads at HT (60%) while EL Nacional (W) trails (67%): look at home at HT.
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Ibarra (W) (rating 1530 vs 1402).
- High estimate: 4.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Deportivo Ibarra (W): 2-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Ibarra (W) | EL Nacional (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.1 | 0.9 / 3.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 1.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 17/17/67% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.4 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Ibarra (W) 2–1–0 EL Nacional (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/04/26 Ecuador Primera Women | EL Nacional (W) | 0-2 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 22/06/25 Ecuador Primera Women | EL Nacional (W) | 0-0 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) |
| 15/04/25 Ecuador Primera Women | Deportivo Ibarra (W) | 3-0 | EL Nacional (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Ibarra (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Quito FC (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 09/05 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Emelec (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Independiente del Valle (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-4 | 0-7 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 01/04 | EL Nacional (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/03 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
EL Nacional (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-3 | 0-8 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 30/04 | Carneras UPS (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | LDU Quito (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-4 | 2-10 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 01/04 | Deportivo Ibarra (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 27/03 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 18/03 | Macara (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Barcelona Guayaquil (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
– | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 17/08 | CD Espuce (W) Ecuador Primera Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |