Football · Malawi Super League · 28/06, 14:30
Ekhaya FC vs MAFCO
48%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ekhaya FC 1532 · MAFCO 1476
| Ekhaya FC | Draw | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 33% | 20% |
| Market | 49% | 30% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.89 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals1.89Ekhaya FC 1.2 · MAFCO 0.69
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 54%
BTTSNo · 54%
Most likely total1 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ekhaya FC (rating 1532 vs 1476).
- Low estimate: 1.89 goals → consider Under 2.5.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ekhaya FC | MAFCO | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.3 | 1.9 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ekhaya FC 1–0–1 MAFCO
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/25 Malawi Super League | MAFCO | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Ekhaya FC |
| 09/08/25 Malawi Super League | Ekhaya FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | MAFCO |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ekhaya FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/06 | Big Bullets Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 30/05 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 16/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/01 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/12 | Mighty Tigers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
MAFCO
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 30/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 09/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 03/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 26/04 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 04/01 | Blue Eagles Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/12 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 20/12 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |