Football · Malawi Super League · 28/06, 14:30
Karonga United vs Moyale Barracks
42%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Karonga United 1505 · Moyale Barracks 1491
| Karonga United | Draw | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Market | 42% | 31% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.41Karonga United 1.36 · Moyale Barracks 1.06
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 55%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.8 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Karonga United | Moyale Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 1.8 / 3.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Karonga United 2–2–2 Moyale Barracks
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/25 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Moyale Barracks |
| 03/08/25 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Karonga United |
| 24/08/24 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 15/04/23 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Karonga United |
| 08/05/22 Malawi Super League | Moyale Barracks | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Karonga United |
| 25/09/21 Malawi Super League | Karonga United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Moyale Barracks |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Karonga United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Silver Strikers Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 27/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
1-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 10/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 18/01 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/01 | Lufita United Malawi Challenge Cup |
1-1 | 5-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
Moyale Barracks
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 23/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 09/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 02/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 27/12 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 20/12 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-3 | 0-6 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 14/12 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |