Football · Malawi Super League · 28/06, 14:30
Dedza Dynamos vs Mighty Wanderers
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dedza Dynamos 1457 · Mighty Wanderers 1597
| Dedza Dynamos | Draw | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 27% | 62% |
| Market | 13% | 24% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.04 goals · Bet365 line 2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.04Dedza Dynamos 0.51 · Mighty Wanderers 1.53
Over / Under 2Under 2 · 53%
BTTSNo · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mighty Wanderers (rating 1457 vs 1597).
- H2H favours Mighty Wanderers: 3-3-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dedza Dynamos | Mighty Wanderers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 2.4 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.2 | 2.7 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dedza Dynamos 0–3–3 Mighty Wanderers
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/25 Malawi Super League | Dedza Dynamos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 22/06/25 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Dedza Dynamos |
| 18/08/24 Malawi Super League | Dedza Dynamos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
| 01/06/24 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Dedza Dynamos |
| 25/06/23 Malawi Super League | Mighty Wanderers | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Dedza Dynamos |
| 11/09/22 Malawi Super League | Dedza Dynamos | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Mighty Wanderers |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dedza Dynamos
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 10/05 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 21/02 | Big Bullets Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/01 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/01 | Karonga United Malawi Challenge Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
Mighty Wanderers
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 14/06 | Creck SC Malawi Top 8 Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Chitipa United Malawi Super League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 27/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
3-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/05 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 16/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 04/01 | Extreme FC Malawi Challenge Cup |
3-0 | 6-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 27/12 | Kamuzu Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 2 | D |