Football · Macau 1st Division · 28/06, 13:00
Benfica Macau vs Macau Chiba FC
43%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Benfica Macau 1504 · Macau Chiba FC 1549
| Benfica Macau | Draw | Macau Chiba FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 21% | 42% |
| Market | 37% | 21% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.28 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals4.28Benfica Macau 2.06 · Macau Chiba FC 2.22
Over / Under 4Over 4 · 51%
BTTSYes · 63%
Most likely total4 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Macau Chiba FC (rating 1504 vs 1549).
- High estimate: 4.28 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.5 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 1.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Benfica Macau | Macau Chiba FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 2.4 | 3.2 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.2 | 3.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Benfica Macau 0–1–0 Macau Chiba FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Macau 1st Division | Macau Chiba FC | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Benfica Macau |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Benfica Macau
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/06 | Gala Macau 1st Division |
0-3 | 0-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Shao Jiang SA Macau FA Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/05 | Cheng Fung Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 23/05 | Artilheiros Macau FA Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | Artilheiros Macau 1st Division |
4-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau 1st Division |
2-2 | 4-4 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 24/04 | Hang Sai Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Shao Jiang SA Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/03 | MUST IPO Macau 1st Division |
0-3 | 0-7 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/03 | Macau Chiba FC Macau 1st Division |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
Macau Chiba FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Artilheiros Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 14/06 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau FA Cup |
2-0 | 7-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 31/05 | Hang Sai Macau 1st Division |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Shao Jiang SA Macau 1st Division |
2-0 | 3-3 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 03/05 | Macau University Macau 1st Division |
3-0 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | MUST IPO Macau 1st Division |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Gorilla Of The Universe SC Macau 1st Division |
0-2 | 1-5 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Gala Macau 1st Division |
1-2 | 2-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Cheng Fung Macau 1st Division |
3-1 | 5-2 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 14/03 | Benfica Macau Macau 1st Division |
2-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |