Football · World Cup 2026 · 30/06, 23:00
France vs Sweden
66%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · France 1580 · Sweden 1493
| France | Draw | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 67% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsOver 3.5 goals · 45% · @3.20 · +45%
Over 1.5 goals · 87% · @1.25 · +8%
Both teams score: Yes · 56% · @2.10 · +17%
Over 1.5 goals (1st half) · 45% · @2.59 · +18%
High-value bet — premium onlyGo premium to see it.Expected goals3.46France 2.42 · Sweden 1.04
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours France (rating 1580 vs 1493).
- High estimate: 3.46 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours France: 4-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (1.3 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| France | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.7 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/20/10% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · France 4–0–1 Sweden
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/11/20 UEFA Nations League | France | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Sweden |
| 05/09/20 UEFA Nations League | Sweden | 0-1 HT 0-1 | France |
| 09/06/17 Europe - World Cup Qualifying | Sweden | 2-1 HT 1-1 | France |
| 11/11/16 Europe - World Cup Qualifying | France | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Sweden |
| 18/11/14 African Nations C'ship Qualifying | France | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Sweden |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
France
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Norway World Cup 2026 |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 22/06 | Iraq World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/06 | Senegal World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 08/06 | Northern Ireland International Match |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 04/06 | Ivory Coast International Match |
1-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Bulgaria EMF Mini Euro - 50 mins play |
1-2 | 1-6 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 29/03 | Colombia International Match |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 26/03 | Brazil International Match |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 16/11 | Azerbaijan Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 13/11 | Ukraine Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
Sweden
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Japan World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 20/06 | Netherlands World Cup 2026 |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/06 | Tunisia World Cup 2026 |
2-1 | 5-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 04/06 | Greece International Match |
0-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 01/06 | Norway International Match |
0-3 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 31/03 | Poland Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
2-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/03 | Ukraine Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 18/11 | Slovenia Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 15/11 | Switzerland Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/10 | Kosovo Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 2 | L |