Football · World Cup 2026 · 29/06, 22:30
Germany vs Paraguay
72%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Germany 1598 · Paraguay 1514
| Germany | Draw | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 9% |
| Market | 72% | 19% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.08Germany 2.33 · Paraguay 0.75
Over / Under 2.75Over 2.75 · 53%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Germany (rating 1598 vs 1514).
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (1.4 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Germany | Paraguay | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 6.6 | 1.4 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Germany
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Ecuador World Cup 2026 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Ivory Coast World Cup 2026 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Curacao World Cup 2026 |
3-1 | 7-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 06/06 | USA International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Finland International Match |
1-0 | 4-0 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 30/03 | Ghana International Match |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/03 | Switzerland International Match |
2-2 | 4-3 | 10 | 0 | W |
| 17/11 | Slovakia Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
4-0 | 6-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 14/11 | Luxembourg Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 13/10 | Northern Ireland Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
Paraguay
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Australia World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Türkiye World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | USA World Cup 2026 |
0-3 | 1-4 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 06/06 | Nicaragua International Match |
2-0 | 4-0 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 31/03 | Morocco International Match |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 27/03 | Greece International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 19/11 | Mexico International Match |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/11 | USA International Match |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 14/10 | South Korea International Match |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 10/10 | Japan International Match |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | D |