Football · Japan Regional League · 28/06, 06:15
Nobeoka Agata vs Nippon Steel Oita
84%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nobeoka Agata 1583 · Nippon Steel Oita 1443
| Nobeoka Agata | Draw | Nippon Steel Oita | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 15% | 7% |
| Market | 88% | 8% | 4% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 4 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.46Nobeoka Agata 2.73 · Nippon Steel Oita 0.73
Over / Under 4Under 4 · 59%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nobeoka Agata (rating 1583 vs 1443).
- High estimate: 3.46 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 1.3 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.4) → Over 0.5 HT.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nobeoka Agata | Nippon Steel Oita | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 8 | 1.1 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nobeoka Agata 1–1–0 Nippon Steel Oita
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/06/25 Japan Regional League | Nippon Steel Oita | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Nobeoka Agata |
| 19/05/24 Japan Regional League | Nippon Steel Oita | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Nobeoka Agata |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nobeoka Agata
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 3-2 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 13/06 | MHI Nagasaki Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 13/06 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 07/09 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | J-Lease FC Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 29/06 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 28/06 | FC Hakata Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 3-1 | 13 | 0 | W |
Nippon Steel Oita
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | MHI Nagasaki Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 27/06 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 31/05 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 12/04 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 12 | 1 | D |
| 04/04 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 07/09 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 2 | L |