Football · Japan Regional League · 28/06, 04:00
Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC vs Brew Saga
49%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 1458 · Brew Saga 1458
| Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | Draw | Brew Saga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 24% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.67Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC 1.6 · Brew Saga 1.07
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC | Brew Saga | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.9 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.3 | 3.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.1 | 2.2 / 0.4 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 13/06 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 24/05 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 04/04 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 06/09 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 0 | D |
| 03/08 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 27/07 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 29/06 | FC Hakata Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 28/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 3 | 2 | L |
Brew Saga
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 13/06 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 31/05 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 1 | D |
| 07/09 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | J-Lease FC Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 03/08 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |