Football · Japan Regional League · 28/06, 04:00
Mitsubishi Mizushima vs Fukuyama City FC
65%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mitsubishi Mizushima 1532 · Fukuyama City FC 1591
| Mitsubishi Mizushima | Draw | Fukuyama City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 20% | 65% |
| Market | 16% | 18% | 66% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.46Mitsubishi Mizushima 1.1 · Fukuyama City FC 2.37
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fukuyama City FC (rating 1532 vs 1591).
- High estimate: 3.46 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Fukuyama City FC: 3-1-0.
- Early goals: 2 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.9) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mitsubishi Mizushima | Fukuyama City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.3 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3 | 2.8 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.1 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mitsubishi Mizushima 0–1–3 Fukuyama City FC
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Japan Regional League | Fukuyama City FC | 5-2 HT 1-1 | Mitsubishi Mizushima |
| 07/09/25 Japan Regional League | Fukuyama City FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Mitsubishi Mizushima |
| 08/06/25 Japan Regional League | Mitsubishi Mizushima | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Fukuyama City FC |
| 28/10/20 Japan Cup | Fukuyama City FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Mitsubishi Mizushima |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mitsubishi Mizushima
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | International Pacific University Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Variamore Aki Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | ENEOS Mizushima Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 03/05 | Yonago Genki SC Japan Regional League |
2-1 | 5-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Belugarosso Iwami Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 22/03 | Fukuyama City FC Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 2-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 15/03 | Miyajima United Japan Regional League |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/03 | International Pacific University Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 20/09 | SRC Hiroshima Japan Regional League |
2-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | Fukuyama City FC Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
Fukuyama City FC
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | ENEOS Mizushima Japan Regional League |
4-0 | 5-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | Variamore Aki Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Mitsubishi Mizushima Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 5-2 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 09/11 | Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 08/11 | Cobaltore Onagawa Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 07/11 | FC Basara Hyogo Japan Regional Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 13/09 | FC Baleine Shimonoseki Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | Mitsubishi Mizushima Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/08 | Yonago Genki SC Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 6-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 27/07 | Hatsukaichi FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |