Football · Japan Regional League · 28/06, 07:30
KMG Holdings vs Kawasoe Club
71%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · KMG Holdings 1568 · Kawasoe Club 1495
| KMG Holdings | Draw | Kawasoe Club | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Market | 72% | 17% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.97 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.97KMG Holdings 2.23 · Kawasoe Club 0.74
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 51%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KMG Holdings (rating 1568 vs 1495).
- H2H favours KMG Holdings: 2-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (1 + 0.5) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| KMG Holdings | Kawasoe Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.2 | 2.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.2 | 1.9 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · KMG Holdings 2–0–1 Kawasoe Club
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Japan Regional League | Kawasoe Club | 0-1 HT 0-1 | KMG Holdings |
| 05/04/25 Japan Regional League | KMG Holdings | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Kawasoe Club |
| 21/07/24 Japan Regional League | KMG Holdings | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Kawasoe Club |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
KMG Holdings
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 4-1 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 13/06 | Veroskronos Tsuno Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 31/05 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/05 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
4-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 05/04 | Kawasoe Club Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 1 | W |
| 07/09 | FC Hakata Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 03/08 | Nobeoka Agata Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
Kawasoe Club
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 14/06 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 12 | 5 | D |
| 13/06 | CA Celeste Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 24/05 | Mitsubishi Nagasaki SC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | Nexus Miyakonojo Japan Regional League |
2-1 | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 05/04 | KMG Holdings Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Brew Saga Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/09 | Nippon Steel Oita Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | NIFS Kanoya FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | J-Lease FC Japan Regional League |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |