Football · Japan Regional League · 28/06, 05:30
Moriyama Samurai vs FC Basara Hyogo
62%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moriyama Samurai 1441 · FC Basara Hyogo 1601
| Moriyama Samurai | Draw | FC Basara Hyogo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Market | 16% | 21% | 63% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.83Moriyama Samurai 0.87 · FC Basara Hyogo 1.96
Over / Under 3Under 3 · 54%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Basara Hyogo (rating 1441 vs 1601).
- H2H favours FC Basara Hyogo: 2-0-1.
- Early goals: 1.5 combined avg at HT (0.3 + 1.2) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Moriyama Samurai | FC Basara Hyogo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.6 / 1.3 | 3.6 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/60/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 3.9 | 3.6 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moriyama Samurai 1–0–2 FC Basara Hyogo
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/04/26 Japan Regional League | FC Basara Hyogo | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Moriyama Samurai |
| 23/08/25 Japan Regional League | Moriyama Samurai | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Basara Hyogo |
| 18/05/25 Japan Regional League | FC Basara Hyogo | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Moriyama Samurai |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moriyama Samurai
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Cento Cuore Harima Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | AS Laranja Kyoto Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 24/05 | Velago Ikoma Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Asuka FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 12/04 | FC Basara Hyogo Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 07/09 | Arterivo Wakayama Japan Regional League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/08 | FC AWJ Japan Regional League |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | FC Basara Hyogo Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Velago Ikoma Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 05/07 | AS Laranja Kyoto Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
FC Basara Hyogo
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06 | Velago Ikoma Japan Regional League |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/06 | Asuka FC Japan Regional League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Ococias Kyoto AC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/04 | AS Laranja Kyoto Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 12/04 | Moriyama Samurai Japan Regional League |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 09/11 | Cobaltore Onagawa Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 08/11 | Tokyo United FC Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 07/11 | Fukuyama City FC Japan Regional Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 21/09 | AS Laranja Kyoto Japan Regional League |
0-0 | 6-2 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 14/09 | Kobe FC 1970 Japan Regional League |
6-0 | 12-0 | 16 | 4 | W |