Football · World Cup 2026 · 30/06, 19:00
Ivory Coast vs Norway
51%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ivory Coast 1577 · Norway 1537
| Ivory Coast | Draw | Norway | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 27% | 50% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Profitable betsOver 2.5 goals · 58% · @1.91 · +11%
Over 1.5 goals · 81% · @1.28 · +5%
Over 1.5 goals (1st half) · 42% · @2.77 · +16%
Expected goals3.02Ivory Coast 1.2 · Norway 1.82
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ivory Coast (rating 1577 vs 1537).
- Early goals: 1.7 combined avg at HT (0.9 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ivory Coast | Norway | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.9 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.1 | 2.5 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 1.3 / 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ivory Coast
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Curacao World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Germany World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 15/06 | Ecuador World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 04/06 | France International Match |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 31/03 | Scotland International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 28/03 | South Korea International Match |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 10/01 | Egypt Africa Cup of Nations |
1-2 | 2-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 06/01 | Burkina Faso Africa Cup of Nations |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 31/12 | Gabon Africa Cup of Nations |
1-2 | 3-2 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/12 | Cameroon Africa Cup of Nations |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
Norway
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | France World Cup 2026 |
1-3 | 1-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Senegal World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 17/06 | Iraq World Cup 2026 |
2-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 07/06 | Morocco International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 01/06 | Sweden International Match |
3-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 31/03 | Switzerland International Match |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 27/03 | Netherlands International Match |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 16/11 | Italy Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 13/11 | Estonia Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 4-1 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 14/10 | New Zealand International Match |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |