Football · Brazil Paulista Serie B · 27/06, 20:00
Uniao Mogi U23 vs Maua U23
37%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Uniao Mogi U23 1528 · Maua U23 1521
| Uniao Mogi U23 | Draw | Maua U23 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.79Uniao Mogi U23 1.38 · Maua U23 1.41
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 52%
BTTSYes · 55%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Maua U23: 3-1-0.
- Early goals: 1.2 combined avg at HT (0.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- Cards-heavy: 11.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Uniao Mogi U23 | Maua U23 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/10/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.1 | 6 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Uniao Mogi U23 0–1–3 Maua U23
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/26 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Maua U23 | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Uniao Mogi U23 |
| 03/05/26 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Uniao Mogi U23 | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Maua U23 |
| 14/06/25 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Uniao Mogi U23 | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Maua U23 |
| 18/05/24 Brazil Paulista Serie B | Uniao Mogi U23 | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Maua U23 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Uniao Mogi U23
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Itaquaquecetuba U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 0 | 6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 06/06 | Maua U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 31/05 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-1 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | Itaquaquecetuba U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-2 | 1-4 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Maua U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 19/04 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
Maua U23
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
2-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 14/06 | Itaquaquecetuba U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-4 | 1-5 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 06/06 | Uniao Mogi U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 30/05 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 23/05 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | Barcelona SP U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Itaquaquecetuba U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | Uniao Mogi U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Mauaense U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Manthiqueira U23 Brazil Paulista Serie B |
1-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |