Football · Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar · 27/06, 21:00
Fancesa vs Universitario de Sucre
54%2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Fancesa 1464 · Universitario de Sucre 1589
| Fancesa | Draw | Universitario de Sucre | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 23% | 54% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.47Fancesa 1.35 · Universitario de Sucre 2.11
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 53%
BTTSYes · 58%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Sucre (rating 1464 vs 1589).
- High estimate: 3.47 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- H2H favours Universitario de Sucre: 6-0-0.
- Early goals: 1.8 combined avg at HT (0.7 + 1.1) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Both score and concede often → consider BTTS.
- High corners: 11.8 combined avg → Over corners.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Fancesa | Universitario de Sucre | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.5 | 3 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 60/10/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.3 | 3.1 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.4 | 6.2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Fancesa 0–0–6 Universitario de Sucre
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Universitario de Sucre | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Fancesa |
| 11/10/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Fancesa | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 20/07/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Fancesa | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 28/06/25 Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar | Universitario de Sucre | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Fancesa |
| 29/09/21 Bolivia Nacional B | Fancesa | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Universitario de Sucre |
| 18/09/21 Bolivia Nacional B | Universitario de Sucre | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Fancesa |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Fancesa
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Club Atletico Juniors Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 07/06 | Impacto Deportivo Sopachuy Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 9 | D |
| 31/05 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 24/05 | Club Lions Tomina Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 12 | W |
| 16/05 | Impacto Deportivo Sopachuy Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 26/10 | Universitario de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Universitario de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-1 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 28/09 | Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 21/09 | CD Rio San Juan Humi Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/09 | CD Chocorosi Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
3-0 | 8-0 | 11 | 6 | W |
Universitario de Sucre
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Atletico Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 05/06 | Flamengo de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 30/05 | Nacional Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Flamengo de Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 09/05 | Nacional Sucre Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 23/11 | Integracion Del Norte San Juan Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 7 | L |
| 16/11 | Integracion Del Norte San Juan Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
0-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 12 | L |
| 09/11 | Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
2-0 | 7-4 | 8 | 9 | W |
| 02/11 | Ciudad Nueva Santa Cruz Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Fancesa Bolivia Copa Simon Bolivar |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |