Football · Finland Ykkonen Women · 27/06, 13:00
EBK (W) vs JyPK (W)
74%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · EBK (W) 1595 · JyPK (W) 1483
| EBK (W) | Draw | JyPK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 73% | 16% | 10% |
| Market | 74% | 16% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals3.75EBK (W) 2.75 · JyPK (W) 0.99
Over / Under 3.5Under 3.5 · 51%
BTTSYes · 56%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours EBK (W) (rating 1595 vs 1483).
- High estimate: 3.75 goals → consider Over 2.5.
- Early goals: 2.2 combined avg at HT (1.5 + 0.7) → Over 0.5 HT.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| EBK (W) | JyPK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.1 / 0.7 | 2.2 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 70/10/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.9 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 1.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · EBK (W) 1–0–1 JyPK (W)
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | JyPK (W) | 1-3 HT 0-2 | EBK (W) |
| 06/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | EBK (W) | 1-2 HT 0-1 | JyPK (W) |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
EBK (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06 | EPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 13/06 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 05/06 | TPS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 31/05 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/05 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
3-1 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 11/04 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
4-0 | 6-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 04/04 | TPS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 3-1 | 14 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 21/03 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
JyPK (W)
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 06/06 | HJS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 27/05 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Lahti (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | HJK II (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | KTP (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-0 | 4-1 | 11 | 1 | W |
| 28/03 | ONS (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 22/03 | PK Keski-Uusimaa (W) Finland Ykkonen Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/10 | KTP (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |