Football · Malawi Super League · 27/06, 14:30
Chitipa United vs Kamuzu Barracks
36%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chitipa United 1433 · Kamuzu Barracks 1460
| Chitipa United | Draw | Kamuzu Barracks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 31% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.39Chitipa United 1.22 · Kamuzu Barracks 1.17
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 52%
BTTSYes · 52%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Kamuzu Barracks: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chitipa United | Kamuzu Barracks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0.7 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.4 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chitipa United 2–0–4 Kamuzu Barracks
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11/25 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 21/06/25 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 20/10/24 Malawi Top 8 Cup | Kamuzu Barracks | 6-3 HT 1-0 | Chitipa United |
| 19/09/24 Malawi Super League | Kamuzu Barracks | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Chitipa United |
| 29/07/24 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
| 22/08/21 Malawi Super League | Chitipa United | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Kamuzu Barracks |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chitipa United
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Red Lions Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 31/05 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | MAFCO Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 16/05 | Civil Service Utd Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | Moyale Barracks Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 02/05 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Masters FC Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 27/12 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/12 | Mzuzu City Hammers Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 07/12 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
Kamuzu Barracks
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/06 | Big Bullets Malawi Super League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Dedza Dynamos Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Ekhaya FC Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Creck SC Malawi Super League |
2-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Karonga United Malawi Super League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Mitundu Baptist FC Malawi Super League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Silver Strikers Malawi Super League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 03/01 | Ntaja Rangers Malawi Challenge Cup |
1-0 | 5-1 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 27/12 | Mighty Wanderers Malawi Super League |
1-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 10/12 | Blue Eagles Malawi Super League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | L |