Football · World Cup 2026 · 29/06, 19:00
Brazil vs Japan
54%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Brazil 1559 · Japan 1587
| Brazil | Draw | Japan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.83Brazil 1.8 · Japan 1.03
Over / Under 2.5Over 2.5 · 50%
BTTSYes · 54%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Brazil: 3-0-1.
- Early goals: 2.1 combined avg at HT (1.5 + 0.6) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Brazil | Japan | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.1 | 2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.5 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.5 | 1.8 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.1 | 1.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Brazil 3–0–1 Japan
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/10/25 International Match | Japan | 3-2 HT 0-2 | Brazil |
| 06/06/22 International Match | Japan | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Brazil |
| 10/11/17 International Match | Japan | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Brazil |
| 14/10/14 International Match | Japan | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Brazil |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Brazil
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Scotland World Cup 2026 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Haiti World Cup 2026 |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | Morocco World Cup 2026 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | Egypt International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/05 | Panama International Match |
2-1 | 6-2 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 01/04 | Croatia International Match |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 26/03 | France International Match |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 18/11 | Tunisia International Match |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 15/11 | Senegal International Match |
2-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/10 | Japan International Match |
2-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Japan
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Sweden World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 21/06 | Tunisia World Cup 2026 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 14/06 | Netherlands World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 31/05 | Iceland International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 31/03 | England International Match |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 28/03 | Scotland International Match |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/11 | Bolivia International Match |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/11 | Ghana International Match |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 14/10 | Brazil International Match |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/10 | Paraguay International Match |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 1 | D |