Football · World Cup 2026 · 30/06, 03:00
Netherlands vs Morocco
47%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Netherlands 1561 · Morocco 1608
| Netherlands | Draw | Morocco | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 47% | 28% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market. The value bets mark where the odds cover the model probability with a margin (value).
Model analysis
Expected goals2.57Netherlands 1.52 · Morocco 1.05
Over / Under 2Over 2 · 55%
BTTSYes · 53%
Most likely total2 goals
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Morocco (rating 1561 vs 1608).
- Early goals: 1.9 combined avg at HT (1.1 + 0.8) → Over 0.5 HT.
- Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Netherlands | Morocco | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 0.9 | 2.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/60/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.2 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Netherlands 1–0–0 Morocco
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/17 International Match | Morocco | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Netherlands |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Netherlands
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06 | Tunisia World Cup 2026 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 20/06 | Sweden World Cup 2026 |
2-0 | 5-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/06 | Japan World Cup 2026 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 08/06 | Uzbekistan International Match |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 03/06 | Algeria International Match |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 31/03 | Ecuador International Match |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 27/03 | Norway International Match |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 17/11 | Lithuania Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/11 | Poland Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/10 | Finland Europe - World Cup Qualifying |
3-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 2 | W |
Morocco
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Haiti World Cup 2026 |
2-2 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Scotland World Cup 2026 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 14/06 | Brazil World Cup 2026 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 07/06 | Norway International Match |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 02/06 | Madagascar International Match |
2-0 | 4-0 | 12 | 5 | W |
| 26/05 | Burundi International Match |
0-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/03 | Paraguay International Match |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 27/03 | Ecuador International Match |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 14/01 | Nigeria Africa Cup of Nations |
0-0 | 4-2 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 09/01 | Cameroon Africa Cup of Nations |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 4 | W |